【The 1PM Bargain Purchase】 XEX suggests continuation of “Stable Upward Trend”
The rise of original token “XEX” issued by CROSS exchange is gaining attention. CROSS exchange was attracting attention from its pre-launch as it is a crypto asset exchange that launched in Azerbaijan in November 2018. The price of the original token “XEX” issued by CROSS exchange has risen close to 4 times in just three months from the initial price in November last year!
“XEX” is classified in the so-called exchange token category while adopting a mining method that distributes transaction fees collected within the exchange to “XEX” holders. Please refer to this past article for details:
In this article, I would like to forecast the future of the market from the viewpoint of technical analysis on “XEX / USDT,” which continues to rise strongly despite the crypto market “winter period.”
XEX/USDT Technical Analysis
① Moving average (daily chart)
First of all, let’s check out and get a rough idea on the daily price chart of XEX/USDT. The attached diagram is a chart combining the daily candlesticks since January this year with the moving average lines for the short term (9 days) and the midterm (21 days):
It is apparent that the trend of the market has been steadily increasing climbing up to 0.1492, then consolidating down to 0.1200, followed by a rise up to 0.1650. Looking at the chart and applying the Dow Theory, you can say that the market price is that of a typical upward trend.
Confirming the moving average line, we realized the dead cross (red circle part) on February 6, and were wary of the price falling from the rising market. But the desire to buy at a bargain persisted at the lower price; if it keeps stepping down somehow, on February the 13th, we realized there would be a Golden Cross (Blue circle part) again. As you can see on the daily chart, the rising momentum of the XEX / USDT market is presumed to be “pretty strong.”
② Bollinger bands (4 hours chart)
When viewing the Bollinger bands, it is necessary to pay attention to 3 points being, (1) direction of the mid band, (2) position of % b, and (3) band width. If you frequently use Bollinger bands as an oscillator tool, it will be a source of failure, so please be sure to analyze the above three comprehensively.
For starters, let’s check the mid band.
The upper row of the attached chart is a mid band (red line). The mid band firmly shows a steadily rising shoulder. Also the candlestick foot of the actual price is located above the mid band. Taking these factors into consideration, it can be deduced that the rising momentum of the XEX / USDT market is “pretty strong.”
Next, let’s check % b for the relative price height (whether it is over bought or oversold).
% b points to 0.6822 as shown in the attached chart middle row. Since 0.75 is “+1 sigma” and 1.00 is the line of “+2 sigma,” the current XEX / USDT price has not reached “+1 sigma,” and the sense of overbought cannot be seen from what I understand. The % b is low despite the fact that the actual price is rising, so it can be assessed that it is the ideal market expansion where price is rising steadily.
Finally, let’s check the band width.
The point where the bandwidth narrows extremely or expands is noticed as a signal of a trend change. Since neither of the above is applicable to the current XEX / USDT price, we can judge that the timing of the trend change is still a bit away. However, since the band width is heading towards a slightly decreasing direction, if there is further reduction of the band width in the future, the risk of trend change (falling market price) is likely to be consciously started.
③ RSI (4 hour chart)
Finally, let’s look at the representative “RSI” of the oscillator system index.
The RSI shows 58.75%, and it has not reached any part of the overbought line (over 70%) and the oversold line (less than 30%). You can see that it is a stable market expansion with no sense of overheating. However, as the market price rises, divergence that RSI falls can occur. The occurrence of divergence in RSI is also said to be a signal of a trend change, so there is a possibility that the rising market that has continued so far will be discontinued for the time being. It is necessary to analyze the chart a little more, but let’s keep in mind the risk of a downfall as well.
④ Habit of releasing lock-up
CROSS exchange’s unique token “XEX” has a habit of making a unique movement at 1:00 PM Japan time. The background has the effect of unlocking the transaction mining. Selling pressure is added temporarily because the owner sells XEX acquired by trade mining at the time of 1 PM of the lock-up release (part surrounded by red on the chart).
Meanwhile, being as good of a token that XEX is, there are many lurking investors waiting to buy the token with a quick click of a mouse. For this reason, “downward wicks” are often seen 1 PM Japan time with quick recoveries afterwards. If you want to buy XEX as cheaply as possible, it may be a good idea to put a limit order around this time of day (time zone of lock-up cancellation at 1 PM) and wait.
As you can see, the XEX / USDT market is seen in the technical index of the trend system (the moving average line and the mid band of the Bollinger bands), even if it is seen in the technical index of the oscillator system (% b of Bollinger band or RSI), suggesting the continuation of a “stable upwards trend.”
CROSS exchange’s unique token “XEX” has been making the headlines since last year. As user attention gathers, let’s see how long this uptrend can continue!